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The Question: What is the political distribution of voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania? How has it changed over time?
The Short Answer: In Pennsylvania, registered voters are 44.98% Democratic, 39.96% Republican, and 15.06% Other/ No Political Party. Since 1997, in percentage terms, Pennsylvania has become less Democratic, less Republican, and more Other/ No Party affiliation.
As of now, it's common to hear about Pennsylvania as a swing state. The state government also posts voter registration data. Link Here. This data goes back to 1997 and allows for an analysis of registered voters. The collected data & analysis are linked here.
Change By Percentage of Total
Change By Percentage of Total
Pennsylvania has only voted for the Republican Candidate for president twice in 1988. Once was for Bush Sr in 1988, and the second was for Trump in 2016. Since 1997, the Commonwealth has had Democratic majority. Notably, in 2008 the percentage of Democrats rose to it's largest point in recorded history. As of the most recent numbers (2023) the percentage of Democrats has fallen to it's lowest absolute value at 44.98%, but still the majority.
Change By Registered Voters
Change By Registered Voters
Since 1997 there's been a 69.85% rise in the number of registered voters. Assuming 100% voter participation & that the Democrats & Republican's always voted for their candidate, for a republican to win they would need to convince 444,608 (70.92%) Other/No voters. As of 2023, it would be 435,038 (33.34%). This assumes the remaining Other/No voters don't vote for the Democratic party.
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